Rob Saker's Blog

Valentine’s Day is nearly on upon us, and several news journals and Twitters users have mentioned anectdotal observations suggesting online dating increased as the economy has decreased this past year.  While I admire this optimism, something didn’t sound right.  Dating is expensive, especially in the beginning when you first meet a person and are trying new places.

My theory is that as the economy sours, people decrease participation in dating services as they look to cut discretionary expenses.

How have the dating sites performed over the last year?

Compete.com shows that my theory held true into the fourth quarter of 2008, but that Match.com started experiencing growth in November.  eHarmony.com has only recently stemmed their decrease in visits.

To compare this with the economy, I charted visits Match.com and eHarmony.com against the S&P 500, and adjusted for scale:

Comparison of Match.com, eHarmony.com and S&P 500

Observing the chart, it appears my theory holds true for eHarmony.com and the S&P 500.  There is a correlation of .51 between the two data sets for the past 12 months.  If we exclude January 2009 (and the likely pre-Valentine’s Day seasonal bump in dating traffic), that correlation increases to .849.  That’s a strong enough correlation to where I believe it supports my theory.  People using eHarmony seem to mimick the behavior of the S&P 500.

Match.com paints a different story.  The correlation is a weak .179, and although we considerably strenghthen the relationship to .626 when we exclude January 2009, the chart indicates a multi-month upward trend prior to January.  During the same period, the S&P 500 dropped.  That clearly challenges my theory.  

We don’t know the source of traffic to Match.com during the upward trend.  They may have increased advertising or introduced new compelling features that brought customers back.  A quick look at sub-domains on Quantcast showed the only measurable increase in traffic during this time was related to picture domains – not a compelling feature – which would suggest more promotion.  Still, without better source information we can’t come to a conclusion.

What does this mean?

This is an interesting comparison, but it is based on only two datasets.  We don’t know what either site spent to promote traffic during this time.  We’re limited in competitive web information to 1 year, so we do not know if this is seasonal.  We would want 24 months to adjust for seasonality.

If you are an eHarmony user and find yourself single this Saturday evening, take heart.  It’s not you, it’s the economy.

And if you’re a single Match.com user this Valentine’s Day, here’s wishing the upward trending continues your way.

Happy Valentine’s Day!

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